Long-term, we must begin to build our internal strengths. It isn't just skills like computer technology. It's the old-fashioned basics of self-reliance, self-motivation, self-reinforcement, self-discipline, self-command.
— American historical fiction author Steven Pressfield

MAYPAJO, Caloocan City — Our government officials and leaders may have not noticed but China—despite its commitment of friendship and assistance—has pledged more to the Philippines than it actually spent.

Ever since former president Rodrigo 'Rody' Duterte ditched our country’s friendship with the United States of America and chose the People's Republic of China instead, Beijing avowed more development financing to the Philippines than any other Southeast Asian country over the past decade. But the Philippines saw just a tiny fraction of that funding actually come through, making it among the lowest recipients of China's development financing in the region.

According to a new report by the Sydney-based think tank Lowy Institute, from 2015 to 2023, China committed US$30.5 billion in official development finance—including grants, loans and other forms of assistance—to the Philippines. This represents about 20 percent of all its promised aid to Southeast Asia, Yet only US$700 million was actually disbursed, or less than one-twentieth of what was committed, with several big-ticket projects either losing the interest of Chinese investors or being later shifted to alternative sources of funding.

And obviously, this has resulted in the Philippines trailing behind most of its Southeast Asian neighbors in terms of actual Chinese development financing received from 2015 to 2023. It's worth noting that the actual spending of Chinese pledges span three administrations: those of Benigno Simeon 'Noynoy' Aquino III, Duterte and in the first year of Ferdinand 'Bongbong' Marcos Jr.

According to the database used for the report, the actual disbursements from China to Southeast Asian countries from 2015 to 2023 rank as follows:

China Development Finance Spending in Southeast Asia (Actual disbursements 2015-2023)

- Indonesia: US$20.3 billion (33 percent)
- Laos: US$9.6 billion (15 percent)
- Malaysia: $9.5 billion (15 percent)
- Cambodia: US$7.9 billion (13 percent)
- Vietnam: US$5.5 billion (9 percent)
- Thailand: US$4.7 billion (8 percent)
- Myanmar: US$2.7 billion (4 percent)
- Brunei: US$1.0B (2 percent)
- Philippines: US$700 million (1 percent)
Funny, we rank last, so the question now is why does the Lowy Institute report show a large gap between how much China committed and spent in aid for the Philippines?
Data showed that the majority of China’s committed funds to the Philippines were for transport and storage projects—such as the US$1.6-billion Mindanao Railway Project and the US$7.3-billion Panay-Guimaras-Negros Inter-Island Bridge Project, among others.
Several of the loans for these projects ended up not materializing because Beijing had later lost interest in funding the project or the Philippine government went for an alternative source of funding. For instance, the Philippines dropped China as a funding source for the Mindanao Railway Project in 2023 after China was largely unresponsive or slow to act on the Duterte administration's loan applications for railway projects, which then led to their cancellation.
Also mentioned in the report's aid map is the Panay-Guimaras-Negros Inter-Island Bridge Project, which was supposed to be funded by the Chinese government through a grant before they walked away from the project in 2020.
Lamentably, the projects that did end up being funded by Beijing include a 'military grant' from China's defense ministry in 2022 where around ₱1 billion worth of donated Chinese military equipment was acquired by the Department of Defense (DND) under then Secretary Delfin Lorenzana. China's financing of the ₱4.497-billion Chico River Pump Irrigation Project—which started in 2018 and was inaugurated in 2022—also went through.

Compounding the situation, Western aid was a failure and cuts to shift the balance did not materialize. The warning is that the dynamics in Southeast Asia's source of funding may be poised to change as Western governments, specifically the United States, slashed their foreign aid budgets and, in effect, ceded ground to China's aggressiveness.

According to the study, Western aid cuts "shrank the pool of development financing options for Southeast Asian countries, leaving them with reduced room to maneuver and less leverage to negotiate favourable terms with Beijing.

The United States, for instance, has cut its aid spending by more than 80 percent, while the United Kingdom is redirecting billions in foreign assistance toward its defense budget.

This will eventually cause the 'centre of gravity' in Southeast Asia's development finance landscape to drift eastward, notably to Beijing but also to Tokyo and Seoul. So, with all these taken into deep consideration, we can fairly say that our dependence and reliance on other countries would surely be fatal to our country’s wellbeing.

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