MALATE, Manila — With ongoing attacks by the United States and Israeli against Iran's military impacting global economy, prices of key food items, coupled with residual pressure from transport and fuel costs, is expected to push inflation up in the coming weeks and even months.

According to analysts, the median forecast in the latest poll has reached 2.5 percent, within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) estimate of 2.3 to 3.1 percent for the month of February and higher than January’s 2.0 percent.

If realized, inflation would have risen for a third straight month but on a positive note, remains within the BSP’s 2.0- to 4.0-percent target even as the Philippine Statistics Authority announced that it will release their February inflation data on Thursday, March 5.

Emmanuel Lopez of the University of Santo Tomas Graduate School bucked the outlook with the lowest forecast of 1.8 percent, pointing to “relative stability” in consumer goods, particularly agriculture products.
Union Bank of the Philippines chief economist Ruben Carlo Asuncion, on the other hand, said inflation could have picked up to 2.2 percent on the back of firmer food prices, particularly rice and select fresh produce, as supply conditions remained tight in some areas.

“There was also some residual pressure from transport and fuel costs, although these were not broad‑based enough to significantly alter the overall inflation path,” Asuncion cited.

“Despite the slight rise, nonfood inflation stayed generally benign, keeping underlying price pressures contained,” he added.

Looking ahead, though, it is expected that inflation will remain well‑anchored in the near term, which should give the BSP room to gradually shift toward a more accommodative stance later in the year, provided food supply risks and global oil price volatility remain manageable.

Metrobank Research, meanwhile, said low base effects could have started kicking in and fan inflation moving forward: “Food, energy, and rental prices will continue to drive headline inflation.”
This forecasts a 2.4-percent result with rice and onion prices only partly providing a reprieve.

Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort noted the rate could have risen to 2.5 percent, driven by higher global crude oil prices, as well as increased prices of industrial metals and other commodities.

“Recent geopolitical risks involving Iran, Venezuela and Greenland may push up import costs, which could further add to overall inflation,” Ricafort asserted.